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Hurricane JOVA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80   
KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       3      51      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       8      23      NA
TROPICAL STORM   1       4       3       5      44       9      NA
HURRICANE       99      96      97      95      45      18      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       39      35      20      21      20       4      NA
HUR CAT 2       54      42      34      28      10       5      NA
HUR CAT 3        6      18      34      33      10       6      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       1       9      12       5       2      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       1       1       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   85KT    90KT   100KT   105KT    65KT    25KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)   X(22)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  24(29)   9(38)   X(38)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   8(13)  34(47)   7(54)   X(54)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   X(20)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2   3( 5)   7(12)  24(36)  36(72)   5(77)   X(77)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  27(37)   4(41)   X(41)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   3( 5)   6(11)  26(37)  37(74)   4(78)   X(78)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  27(36)   3(39)   X(39)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  14(21)  19(40)   3(43)   X(43)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)  12(23)   2(25)   X(25)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  20(25)   9(34)   X(34)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:18 UTC