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Tropical Depression JOVA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011

JOVA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...THERE ARE NO SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED NO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER WATER WEST OF
THE CENTER.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  JOVE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS OR
LESS.

THE CENTER OF JOVA HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK...AS IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THE UPPER AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE
STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  THE INITIAL POSITION...BASED ON A BLEND
OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA...YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 005/5.  A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST UNTIL THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATES.

ALTHOUGH JOVA HAS WEAKENED...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN
A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY RAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 21.4N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 21.8N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/1800Z 22.1N 104.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:17 UTC