Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HILARY


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2011
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILARY HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS SOMEWHAT LESS
SYMMETRIC AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN
INTENSITY...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RECENTLY BEGINNING TO COOL
AGAIN. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC DECREASED TO T5.5 FROM BOTH
AGENCIES. BASED UPON THESE DATA AND THE SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 105
KT.
 
ALTHOUGH HILARY HAS LOST SOME LATITUDE DURING THE LAST 6-12
HOURS...A LONGER-TERM MOTION FROM RECENT FIXES IS 270/09. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
STEERING HILARY ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A RATHER ABRUPT NORTHWARD TURN AS HILARY BEGINS
TO DUMBBELL AROUND A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 26N 132W. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS
FEATURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND EXACTLY HOW HILARY INTERACTS WITH
IT ACCOUNT FOR TRACK FORECAST VARIATIONS AMONGST THE MODELS LATER
IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST BUT IS RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP
CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR COULD BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR
MASS TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE INGESTED BY HILARY.
ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LATTER WILL NOT PRODUCE A PARTICULARLY
ADVERSE EFFECT...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME. A RAPID DECAY IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 72 HOURS AS
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW AND A DRAMATIC COOLING
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE MODEL OUTPUTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 16.9N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 16.8N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 16.9N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 17.0N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 19.6N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 22.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 25.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC