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Tropical Storm GREG


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TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
1500 UTC WED AUG 17 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GREG.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE   0SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  20SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.0N 111.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 104.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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