Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011
 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  IN FACT...A 1005 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW JUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK FINAL-T
NUMBERS HAVE PLUMMETED TO 3.5 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0542 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF AROUND 50 TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 55 KT BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS
THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COLDER WATER AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY
EARLIER...AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT A STEADY 285/11...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENED SHALLOW
REFLECTION OF EUGENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 17.9N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 19.1N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 20.8N 134.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC