Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
 
EUGENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES.
IN ADDITION...AN 0853 UTC AMSR-E PASS REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A
MID-LEVEL EYE...DISPLACED ABOUT 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE AT 3.8. BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN MOVING RIGHT OF TRACK
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 295/9. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
SINCE YESTERDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD GUIDE
EUGENE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 120-130W ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. EUGENE SHOULD TURN A BIT TO THE
RIGHT AT THAT POINT AND ITS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE HAS NOT PREVENTED THE
CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY.  THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR RATE OF DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT CONTINUE...
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINING THE CURRENT LEVEL OF SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES BEFORE EUGENE REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL MODEL STILL CONTINUING TO FORECAST EUGENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD...CLOSE TO LGEM...BUT BELOW THE IVCN/ICON MODEL
CONSESUS AIDS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 12.3N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 12.9N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 14.3N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 15.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC