Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DORA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF TWO SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 72-96 HR PERIOD WHERE IT APPEARS
THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD COME CLOSER TO NORTHERN BAJA THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST
THEREAFTER.  
 
ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED SINCE
LAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DORA IS MOVING OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING
FOR DORA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO
A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 21.3N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 22.1N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 23.3N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 24.4N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 25.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC