Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DORA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
 
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DORA HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST PASSED THROUGH
THE CENTER OF DORA A FEW MINUTES AGO...AND WILL BE IN THE STORM FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETED ENOUGH OF THE PATTERN
TO ESTABLISH WHETHER DORA IS STILL A HURRICANE.
 
THE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS.
WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DORA IS FORECAST. DORA SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS...AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
LIKELY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF BAJA.
 
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO BEND DORA...OR OR ITS
REMNANTS...TOWARD BAJA DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...WHILE OTHERS BASICALLY CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD AN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE FOR THIS
STORM...AND SINCE THESE MODELS KEEP DORA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 19.8N 109.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC