Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone CALVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CALVIN HAS
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR NEARLY 9 HOURS NOW...AND A
09/2037Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A WEAK WARM CORE REMAINING NEAR THE 500 MB
LEVEL. ALTHOUGH A SMALL THUNDERSTORM WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 70 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THIS
CONVECTION IS LIKELY NOT PROVIDING ANY POSITIVE FEEDBACK ON THE
INNER CORE OF THE LOW. AS A RESULT...CALVIN HAS BEEN DECLARED A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EXPECTED SPINDOWN OF 35-40 KT WINDS
THAT WERE NOTED IN AN EARLIER 09/1734Z ASCAT SATELLITE OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COLDER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2
DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. GIVEN MUCH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE
AIR AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW...REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNLIKELY.

12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED SINCE CALVIN ONLY RECENTLY LOST
ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
 
THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON CALVIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 17.7N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 18.0N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/0000Z 18.5N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1200Z 19.0N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC