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Hurricane ADRIAN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C
PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  A JUST-RECEIVED TRMM
OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE
CDO...AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77
KT AT 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 80 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS
EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR ADRIAN WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WESTERN MEXICO.  THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER
THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THE GFS...GFDL...
AND HWRF RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ADRIAN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE
TROUGH CAN TURN IT NORTHWARD.  SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS
MORE ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  ASSUMING
THAT THE DRY AIR DOES NOT REACH THE INNER CORE...ADRIAN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 TO 36 HR...WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER
THAT.  IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ENTER A LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 72 HR....WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.
 
THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 103.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.7N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 15.2N 106.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 16.2N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC