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Tropical Storm ADRIAN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON.

ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.


 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC