Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
2100 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 3 4 4 13 22 27
TROP DEPRESSION 36 26 20 19 26 22 14
TROPICAL STORM 60 67 66 61 50 45 46
HURRICANE 1 4 9 17 12 11 13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 8 14 10 9 11
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 3(17)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 3(20)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 4(29) 2(31)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 2(15)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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