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Hurricane RINA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
 
RINA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A
NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -70C. A 0137 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED A CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NOTED ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST
ADT VALUE IS 4.3/73 KT. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.
 
RINA IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
FORECAST IS THAT DRY AIR LURKING IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEYOND 60 HOURS...THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE AS RINA ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR IMPINGES ON THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE COULD
ALSO INTERACT WITH LAND AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THIS TIME. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST RINA TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS IMPLY MORE WEAKENING THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS MOVED LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/03. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-72 HOURS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. THE HWRF/GFDL/UKMET ACCELERATE RINA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFS TURNS THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE MODEL SPREAD IS IN PART
RELATED TO THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF RINA. A STRONGER
CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL/HWRF...WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED
BY THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE A WEAKER/SHALLOWER
SYSTEM WOULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE
RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN
FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE WEAKER GFS
SOLUTION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 17.2N  83.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 17.3N  83.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 17.5N  84.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.9N  85.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 18.7N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 20.9N  87.2W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 96H  29/0000Z 22.2N  85.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:10 UTC