Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RINA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RINA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED WELL WITHIN THE LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS...
AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT INCREASING THE 
INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 40 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF RINA. 
 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...
SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING OF
RINA BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFDL/HWRF MODELS.
 
RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RINA
IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 320/5.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...IT SHOULD ALLOW RINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
AND KEEPING RINA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS...BUT NOW SHOWS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH
THE TVCA AND HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 17.1N  82.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.4N  83.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.6N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.8N  84.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.1N  85.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 19.2N  87.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 20.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:10 UTC