Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011
 
THE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC SHOWED A FEW 50
KT BARBS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 55 KT.  

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH
HAS BEEN AFFECTING PHILIPPE FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS SHOULD ABATE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE BUT SMALL REGION
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME.  STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE AFTER
48 HOURS...YET FOR THE MOST PART THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH WEAKENING.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LGEM...WHICH TENDS TO
HANDLE SHEAR BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND IT IS HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AT DAY 5
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST TO ME THAT IT HAS
EITHER JUMPED TO THE NORTH...OR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.  REGARDLESS...PHILIPPE HAS AN AVERAGED
INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT AND IS ABOUT START ITS SHARP
RE-CURVATURE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...THE ECMWF IS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.  THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO
DIFFER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BY HAVING PHILIPPE STAY FARTHER
SOUTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
IT BECOMING THE MAIN THE PARENT CYCLONE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT IS THEN VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 24.1N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 24.5N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 25.2N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 26.3N  61.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 27.3N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 32.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 36.5N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC