Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
PHILIPPE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  THE STORM IS BEING AFFECTED BY
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
DIMINISH...ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 20N
AND...IF THIS FLOW PERSISTS...PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 24
HOURS...CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT IS POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/10.  THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH
DEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT FORECASTS
PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SINCE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE
LATTER SCENARIO IS INDEED PLAUSIBLE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 15.2N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.0N  35.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.0N  36.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 18.0N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 19.1N  38.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 22.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 24.5N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 26.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC