Hurricane OPHELIA
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HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 3 11 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 10 29 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM X 3 9 65 52 NA NA
HURRICANE 99 97 90 22 8 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 26 41 18 7 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 41 44 34 3 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 51 24 14 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 3 3 1 X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 100KT 95KT 90KT 60KT 45KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 23(42) X(42) X(42)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 12(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 5 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
BERMUDA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
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FORECASTER STEWART
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