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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011               
0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       3      11      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X      10      29      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X       3       9      65      52      NA      NA
HURRICANE       99      97      90      22       8      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5      26      41      18       7      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       41      44      34       3       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       51      24      14       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        3       3       1       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  100KT    95KT    90KT    60KT    45KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  46(46)   X(46)   X(46)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  23(42)   X(42)   X(42)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)  12(12)  21(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  5  17(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BERMUDA        50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:06 UTC