Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011
 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO ABOUT 11
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY
41049 AROUND 08Z...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND
OF 84 KT WITH A GUST OF 101 KT AT A HEIGHT OF 5 METERS...AND A
PRESSURE OF 951.9 MB. BASED ON THE BUOY PRESSURE AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 105 KT. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON WINDS OBTAINED FROM A 01/0106Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 360/15 KT.  OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS THE HURRICANE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY
EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS A BAND OF FAST-MOVING WESTERLIES NORTH OF 45N
LATITUDE. BY THAT TIME...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS
COLDER THAN 20C AND ALSO BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.
OPHELIA COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE
REMAINS OVER SSTS NEAR 28C AND IN A VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF
LESS THAN 5 KT. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL
THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER AND ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30
KT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND ALSO TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 27.7N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 30.4N  62.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 34.8N  61.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 40.1N  60.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 44.8N  55.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 51.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:05 UTC