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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011
 
OPHELIA IS STRENGTHENING WITH AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT
ON BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME TILT ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...A SOLID EYEWALL
HAS FORMED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM
SAB/TAFB...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FETCH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
HEADED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL INSIST
THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DIVERTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
THE HURRICANE AND NOT IMPACT OPHELIA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE.  SINCE THE WATERS STAY WARM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS AND 
BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST
DECREASING SHEAR VALUE...THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE..  THE NEW FORECAST IS BELOW THE HWRF/GFDL
CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOW THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN A FEW DAYS.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO REPORT IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND BENDING
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE NHC FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
AFTER RECURVATURE...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
LEFTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTER DAY 2 AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
OPHELIA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 21.9N  62.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 23.2N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 25.7N  63.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 28.8N  63.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 32.8N  62.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 43.5N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 52.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:05 UTC