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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX A LITTLE OVER
MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN SHEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MARIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE CYCLONE
PEAKING AT 55 KT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND HWRF
THROUGH 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THAT MARIA WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 3 AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY DAY 4.
 
AFTER STALLING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF MARIA
HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE
RECENT JUMPY MOTION...A LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
355/07 IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY 48
HOURS...MARIA WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY
COSMETIC CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 24
HOURS. THROUGH THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THAT ISLAND AT THIS TIME.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 22.8N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 24.1N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 27.1N  68.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 30.6N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 35.0N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 48.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:00 UTC