Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
 
ALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATELLITE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS IN MARIA UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC...AND FOUND THAT THE
CIRCULATION WAS BETTER DEFINED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ONLY...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS. HAVING SAID THAT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGES STILL SHOW THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MARIA PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING THIS TROUGH...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESILIENT AND IT
HAS NOT GONE YET. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS
THE LGEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...BUT IN
GENERAL MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.  

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS THE
SAME STEERING PATTERN THAT IN GENERAL HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON...
AND MOST LIKELY WILL FORCE MARIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IT IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MARIA
WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN RECURVING IT BETWEEN THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND BERMUDA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 19.0N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 20.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 22.5N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 23.5N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 27.0N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 33.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 43.0N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:59 UTC