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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS STABILIZED THIS EVENING...ALBEIT IN A
RATHER DISORGANIZED CONDITION.  PATCHES OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...THE
AIRCRAFT THAT INVESTIGATED MARIA WAS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT A FULL DATA
SET.  THEREFORE...IT WAS NOT DETERMINED WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTED.  HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...SHOWING THAT AT THE VERY
LEAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL EXISTED.  BASED ON THIS...MARIA
IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT BUOY REPORTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...A WEAKNESS POSSIBLY CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 23N61W.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION SUGGESTS THIS TURN
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING...AND
THUS THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS
MARIA TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER SHIFTING TO THE LEFT
FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POST-24 HOUR
PERIOD HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE END OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A SMALL RIGHT TURN...BUT STILL LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE NEW
FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE BULLISH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NO LONGER FORECASTING
MARIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT LIGHT THROUGH 96 HOURS.  GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS...THAT MIGHT BE A
BIT OPTIMISTIC.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MARIA TO
MAINTAIN A 35-KT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS REQUIRES
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 13.3N  54.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 13.5N  57.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 14.7N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 16.3N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 17.8N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 23.5N  73.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:00 UTC