Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       2       4       8      19      23      41
TROP DEPRESSION 35      26      21      22      27      22      27
TROPICAL STORM  62      67      66      57      45      48      27
HURRICANE        1       5       9      14       8       7       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       4       7      11       7       6       5
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       2       1       1       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    45KT    50KT    50KT    40KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)   4(19)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   6(17)   4(21)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   3(22)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   8(26)   2(28)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   9(22)   8(30)   2(32)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   2( 3)   8(11)   9(20)  10(30)   5(35)   2(37)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   2( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   8(23)   6(29)   2(31)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   8(16)   2(18)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   3( 4)   7(11)  11(22)  10(32)   5(37)   2(39)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  9  15(24)  13(37)   8(45)   6(51)   2(53)   1(54)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  1   2( 3)   7(10)  12(22)   9(31)   7(38)   1(39)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  1   5( 6)  11(17)  12(29)   9(38)   6(44)   1(45)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  8  19(27)  16(43)   6(49)   6(55)   1(56)   X(56)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  1   2( 3)   6( 9)   8(17)   7(24)   5(29)   X(29)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   6(21)   2(23)   1(24)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   6(16)   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN