Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LEE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE IS
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.  THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  LEE
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN OF EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER
WATER.  THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY
THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  BY 48 HOURS OR
SOONER...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT TIME.  BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM
THOSE SAME GLOBAL MODELS...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY AFTER 96 HOURS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ABOUT 360/2.  LEE IS IN A
COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...I.E. WITHIN VERY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...AT THIS TIME.  A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND VERY
SIMILAR THEREAFTER.  THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FORECAST.
 
SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
CENTER OF LEE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 29.6N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 30.0N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0600Z 30.3N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1800Z 30.8N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0600Z 32.0N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/0600Z 34.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/0600Z 37.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:57 UTC