Hurricane KATIA
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HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 3 3
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 3 8 9 13
TROPICAL STORM 26 38 42 45 55 52 53
HURRICANE 74 61 56 51 35 36 31
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 67 50 44 36 27 28 24
HUR CAT 2 5 8 9 10 6 5 5
HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 65KT 65KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 4 6(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
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FORECASTER BROWN
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