Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone KATIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
 
KATIA HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT STILL REMAINS 
A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF KATIA PASSED JUST
NORTH OF CANADIAN BUOY 44140 AROUND 11Z...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WITH 31 KT WINDS. BASED ON THAT INFORMATION...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATIA IS ESTIMATED TO BE 954 MB. AT
12Z...THE SAME BUOY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 KT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION JUSTIFIES KEEPING
THE INTENSITY AT 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A VERY BRISK 060/46 KT. KATIA IS EMBEDDED
IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION.
POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY. THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
TVCN...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

KATIA HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED BY AT LEAST 10 MB OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASE IN
BAROCLINIC ENERGY ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND NOT DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE KATIA HAS MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ACT TO KEEP KATIA AS A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
UNTIL IT REACHES THE BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE AND INPUT
FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. CURRENT WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BUOY REPORTS...AND FORECAST WIND RADII
WERE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
NO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE ISSUES
WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE.

ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON KATIA BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND
NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE UK MET OFFICE AT WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 44.7N  47.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  11/0000Z 47.5N  38.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/1200Z 51.5N  27.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0000Z 54.5N  19.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1200Z 57.5N  11.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1200Z 61.0N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:55 UTC