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Hurricane KATIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011
 
AFTER KATIA STRENGTHENED STEADILY EARLIER TODAY...THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW. THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS EASILY SEEN IN
MULTI-CHANNEL NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS ONLY OCCASIONALLY
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
THAT VALUE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD AS A TROUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW KATIA TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS...KATIA
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA IN FOUR TO
FIVE DAYS...AND THAT COULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY AT 120
HOURS...BUT LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THE CURRENT
TREND TOWARD A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES IN THE
GUIDANCE...FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION WOULD BE REQUIRED.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF KATIA HAS LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING...THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY
RANGE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION WITH LOWER VALUES OF
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND PERHAPS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR
A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 23.4N  61.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 24.4N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 25.7N  64.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 26.9N  65.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 28.0N  66.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 30.3N  69.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 33.5N  71.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 36.0N  69.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:53 UTC