Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KATIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011
 
KATIA CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH
INCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  KATIA WILL BE MOVING
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING APPEARS
TO BE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION...285/17...IS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM
EARLIER TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 12.7N  35.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 13.3N  37.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 14.1N  41.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.9N  44.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.7N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 17.5N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 19.5N  56.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 21.5N  60.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:53 UTC