Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWELVE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. 
BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WILL LESSEN WITHIN A DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING TO COMMENCE SOON.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR ABOUT 280/12. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING FROM
THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A
RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 10.2N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 10.9N  30.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 11.9N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 13.0N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 14.0N  38.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 15.5N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 19.0N  55.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:55 UTC