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Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
0900 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       5      11      18      19      26
TROP DEPRESSION  1       7      22      26      27      26      29
TROPICAL STORM  77      79      64      48      48      48      41
HURRICANE       22      13       9      15       6       7       4
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       20      13       8      13       6       6       4
HUR CAT 2        2       1       1       2       X       1       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   60KT    55KT    45KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  1  20(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X  12(12)  12(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X  23(23)   7(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  1  34(35)   5(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  8  48(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34 18  61(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X  38(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PORTLAND ME    34 38  49(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
PORTLAND ME    50  2  48(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
PORTLAND ME    64  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CONCORD NH     34 67  27(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
CONCORD NH     50 20  45(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CONCORD NH     64  4  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BOSTON MA      34 75  15(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
BOSTON MA      50 30  28(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
BOSTON MA      64  6   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 66   9(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
HYANNIS MA     50 11   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
HYANNIS MA     64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 62   6(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
NANTUCKET MA   50  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 84   7(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
PROVIDENCE RI  50 57   8(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
PROVIDENCE RI  64 12   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
HARTFORD CT    50 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
HARTFORD CT    64 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
MONTAUK POINT  50 80   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
MONTAUK POINT  64 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW YORK CITY  50 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
NEW YORK CITY  64 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
NEWARK NJ      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEWARK NJ      50 74   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
NEWARK NJ      64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TRENTON NJ     50 40   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
TRENTON NJ     64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY  64 22   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34 71   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 
DOVER DE       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DOVER DE       50 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34 50   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:51 UTC