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Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       7      33      37      43
TROP DEPRESSION  X       9       5      24      18      20      23
TROPICAL STORM  24      46      57      59      42      37      31
HURRICANE       76      44      37      10       7       5       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       67      37      32       9       6       5       2
HUR CAT 2        7       6       4       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 3        2       2       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    70KT    65KT    50KT    40KT    40KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   7(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)  13(13)  35(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)  22(22)  41(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)  35(35)  35(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   1( 1)  54(55)  20(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)  15(15)  19(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   3( 3)  65(68)  10(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)  23(23)  12(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   6( 6)  54(60)   5(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   7( 7)  49(56)   3(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   9( 9)  68(77)   4(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)  36(36)   4(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X  12(12)  70(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)  44(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X  19(19)  64(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)  45(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  1  35(36)  47(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   3( 3)  41(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  1  31(32)  43(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   2( 2)  33(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  3  37(40)  28(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TRENTON NJ     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  8  59(67)  15(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X  26(26)  17(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  6  23(29)   5(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
DOVER DE       34 11  55(66)   4(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
DOVER DE       50  X  18(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
DOVER DE       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  9  29(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  8  19(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 39  50(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  1  54(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 33  13(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
RICHMOND VA    50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 79  12(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
NORFOLK NAS    50 16  27(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
NORFOLK NAS    64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 85  10(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
NORFOLK VA     50 26  29(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
NORFOLK VA     64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 16   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  64 86   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  64 32   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:51 UTC