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Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       5       7      17      30      37
TROP DEPRESSION  X       5      17       9      26      26      28
TROPICAL STORM   6      39      48      60      44      40      33
HURRICANE       94      56      30      25      14       4       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       72      45      25      20      11       4       2
HUR CAT 2       18       8       3       3       2       X       X
HUR CAT 3        3       2       2       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        1       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    75KT    70KT    60KT    45KT    40KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  14(30)   X(30)   X(30)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  30(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  28(47)   X(47)   X(47)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  19(56)   X(56)   X(56)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  49(50)  13(63)   X(63)   X(63)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   9(25)   X(25)   X(25)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  58(61)   6(67)   X(67)   X(67)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  59(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)  16(16)  52(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)  19(19)  38(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)  20(20)  31(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)  26(26)  43(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   1( 1)  32(33)  36(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  25(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   2( 2)  39(41)  29(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  25(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X  10(10)  47(57)  10(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)  22(22)   8(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   9( 9)  42(51)  10(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X  13(13)  41(54)   4(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
TRENTON NJ     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X  31(31)  43(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   2( 2)  33(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  1  20(21)  14(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
DOVER DE       34  2  36(38)  30(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
DOVER DE       50  X   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
DOVER DE       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  3  26(29)  14(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  3  21(24)   9(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  8  58(66)  20(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X  17(17)  33(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 17  34(51)   3(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 46  43(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
NORFOLK NAS    50  1  45(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 51  41(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
NORFOLK VA     50  1  53(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
NORFOLK VA     64  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  6   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 29   8(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 95   5(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 69  25(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
CAPE HATTERAS  64 12  53(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 92   3(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
MOREHEAD CITY  64 47   4(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 34   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
WILMINGTON NC  64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:50 UTC