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Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
0030 UTC TUE AUG 23 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0030Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       6      14
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       X       1       1       6       3
TROPICAL STORM  10       2       3       4      12      21      31
HURRICANE       90      97      96      95      87      67      53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      11      11      19      29      30      31
HUR CAT 2       56      34      28      30      27      20      13
HUR CAT 3       21      43      43      32      24      14       7
HUR CAT 4        2       9      14      12       7       3       1
HUR CAT 5        X       1       2       1       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT   105KT   110KT   110KT   110KT   105KT    95KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  30(37)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  33(42)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  34(47)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  30(49)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  21(40)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)  12(42)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)
MAYPORT NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)  11(37)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  32(42)   8(50)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  29(41)   5(46)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   2(14)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  34(55)   4(59)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   2(24)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  34(54)   4(58)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   2(24)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)  29(61)   2(63)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  20(27)   1(28)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  40(41)  22(63)   1(64)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   1(29)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  37(39)  13(52)   1(53)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)   X(21)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   6(25)   X(25)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  11(27)   1(28)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)   1(28)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   1(20)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   3(23)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  60(65)  15(80)   1(81)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)  17(50)   1(51)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  12(26)   X(26)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)  58(83)   4(87)   X(87)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  51(56)   3(59)   X(59)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   2(33)   X(33)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  31(36)  41(77)   2(79)   X(79)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  40(49)   2(51)   X(51)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   4( 4)  25(29)  55(84)   9(93)   X(93)   X(93)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  45(49)  20(69)   X(69)   X(69)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)  16(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  46(78)   6(84)   X(84)   X(84)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  2  65(67)  22(89)   3(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   8( 8)  31(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   1( 1)  15(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
GRAND TURK     34 53  43(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
GRAND TURK     50  2  37(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GRAND TURK     64  X  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)   8(25)   1(26)   X(26)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1   6( 7)  26(33)   6(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 90   7(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
PUERTO PLATA   50 35  31(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PUERTO PLATA   64 12  24(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  5   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:50 UTC