Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
 
TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE AIR FORCE AND ONE NOAA...ARE
AGAIN TONIGHT SUPPLYING VERY VALUABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BOTH PLANES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING AND IS NOW NEAR 942 MB...BUT THE
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IRENE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
THE WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN
FACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR
PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO
REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE U.S.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 28.3N  77.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 30.0N  77.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 31.8N  77.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 33.7N  77.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 36.0N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 42.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0000Z 51.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/0000Z 58.0N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:50 UTC