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Tropical Storm EMILY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011               
1500 UTC THU AUG 04 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       7       7       8       8       9      14
TROP DEPRESSION 12      44      22      18      12       9      18
TROPICAL STORM  85      47      64      60      52      47      51
HURRICANE        3       2       7      15      28      35      17
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3       2       6      13      22      28      15
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       2       4       6       2
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       1       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    35KT    45KT    50KT    60KT    65KT    55KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   1(15)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   3(19)   X(19)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   3(19)   X(19)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   3(23)   X(23)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  14(24)   3(27)   X(27)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)   2(24)   X(24)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  22(40)   3(43)   X(43)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  26(34)  11(45)   2(47)   X(47)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)  14(14)  22(36)   9(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   2( 2)  22(24)   9(33)   3(36)   1(37)   X(37)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1  13(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LES CAYES      34 11   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 66   3(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:45 UTC