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Tropical Storm EMILY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EMILY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011               
0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1      11      15      11      10      14
TROP DEPRESSION  3       9      39      40      24      16      15
TROPICAL STORM  90      77      45      41      54      54      44
HURRICANE        7      14       4       4      11      20      28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      12       3       4      10      17      22
HUR CAT 2        1       2       1       1       2       2       5
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    35KT    35KT    45KT    55KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   6(19)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   4(20)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   4(20)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   3(20)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   2(19)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  13(26)   3(29)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   7(25)   2(27)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   1(21)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  16(21)   3(24)   X(24)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  15(22)   2(24)   X(24)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   6( 6)   8(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X  10(10)   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  1  13(14)   3(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  2  30(32)  14(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 12  55(67)   3(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PONCE          34 34   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
SAN JUAN       34 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:46 UTC