Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression EMILY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT ON THE
BASIS OF CONTINUITY AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE
CENTER...EMILY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
OR THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLIER THAN DISSIPATION
IS INDICATED HERE.
 
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES
AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES...AT 15 KT.
OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS EMILY
WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE NEW
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 30.1N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 33.4N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:46 UTC