Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CINDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24.  CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
 
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 42.3N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 44.5N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 47.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 51.6N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 55.0N  22.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:44 UTC