Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

SSM/IS DATA BACK FROM THE TIME OF LANDFALL SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE ABOUT 35 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.  THIS CONFIRMS THAT ARLENE HAD ISSUES WITH ITS VERTICAL
ALIGNMENT AS WELL AS HAVING AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
SINCE LANDFALL...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED
IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
MEXICO...AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA BACK AT
15Z AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL
PRESENT OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 255/6.  ARLENE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
 
ARLENE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
IN 24-36 HR...AND IT MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG.  SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR A NEW
SYSTEM REMAINS SPECULATIVE.  EITHER WAY... SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 21.3N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  01/0600Z 21.1N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/1800Z 20.6N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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