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Tropical Depression TEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE CIRCULATION CENTER LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE ON THE CONVECTIVE
MASS...VALIDATING SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES WHICH INDICATE MODERATELY
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A 0458 UTC ASCAT
PASS INDICATED A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALTHOUGH
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 2.5/35 KT AT 0600
UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET MORE CONSERVATIVELY AT 30
KT...CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  ALTHOUGH THE
DEPRESSION COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND ITS
PROJECTED PATH OVER COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS...NONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY
HISTORY OF THE CENTER LOCATION DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS
ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION
TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 19.7N 109.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 110.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 112.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    25 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 21.1N 115.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC