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Tropical Storm FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH RATHER DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FRANK MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES
TO BE IMPACTED BY EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. 
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL
PREDICTION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING...HOWEVER...FRANK
COULD DEGENERATE BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS EVEN SOONER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THE CENTER IS MOSTLY EXPOSED AND IS NOW EASY TO FIND ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 320/5.  THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DIGS INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS
PACKAGE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN 3-4 DAYS...
FRANK WILL PROBABLY BE SO WEAK THAT IT WILL BE RESPONDING MAINLY TO
SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.  BY THAT TIME FRAME...THE NHC FORECAST
MERELY SHOWS A VERY SLOW...OR NO...MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 19.3N 112.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.9N 112.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 113.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 22.2N 112.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC