ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010 FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH RATHER DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FRANK MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL PREDICTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING...HOWEVER...FRANK COULD DEGENERATE BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS EVEN SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE CENTER IS MOSTLY EXPOSED AND IS NOW EASY TO FIND ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 320/5. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DIGS INTO CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS PACKAGE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 3-4 DAYS... FRANK WILL PROBABLY BE SO WEAK THAT IT WILL BE RESPONDING MAINLY TO SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING. BY THAT TIME FRAME...THE NHC FORECAST MERELY SHOWS A VERY SLOW...OR NO...MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.3N 112.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 113.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 22.2N 112.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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