Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ESTELLE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER
OF ESTELLE.  HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
SHAPE...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST LESS ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 50
KT...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. 
ESTELLE HAS CROSSED THE 26.5C ISOTHERM AND HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY.  DECREASING SSTS...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A SLOW WEAKENING OF
ESTELLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
ESTELLE.  AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE RELIABLE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 18.1N 112.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 18.1N 113.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.1N 114.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 115.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:32 UTC