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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

DARBY HAS A SMALL BUT SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65
KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...AND DARBY IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL MODEL
GUIDANCE.  BY AROUND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY WHICH WOULD
INDUCE WEAKENING...AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER
SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE QUITE WARM THROUGH 5 DAYS...DARBY MIGHT NOT
WEAKEN AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY 4 AND 5 DAYS.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED
TO BE 285/8.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SO A CONTINUED DECELERATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERSE SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK.  BY DAYS 4-5...THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN DARBY AND THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY IF THE LATTER SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND
STRENGTHENS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND 96 HOURS AS SHOWN IN
THE FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL.  FOR THE TIME BEING THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SHOWS A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 12.8N  98.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N  99.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.3N 101.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 13.5N 102.1W    80 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 13.7N 102.9W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 103.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 103.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:31 UTC