Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
200 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION
CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5
FROM TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB.  ASCAT DATA...WHICH IS KNOWN TO HAVE A
LOW BIAS...SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AT 0306 UTC.  SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DARBY.

THE ASCAT PASS HELPED IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT DARBY IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO SHOULD
STEER DARBY GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS.  THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.  IN FACT...SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
DARBY COULD STOP ALTOGETHER AND ATTAIN SOME EASTWARD MOTION WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THAT TIME.  THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COUNTER TO THAT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH MAINTAIN
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
UNCERTAINTY SUPPORTS THE NEGLIGIBLE MOTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BY DAY 5.

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY SHOULD
ABATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...GIVING THE SYSTEM A CHANCE TO
INTENSIFY.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS STILL MIGHT BE
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 1 IN
4 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WHATEVER
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER DAY 3 IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IF DARBY BEGINS TO ATTAIN
AN EASTERLY MOTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 11.5N  94.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 11.9N  95.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 12.4N  96.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 12.8N  98.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 13.0N  99.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 101.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:31 UTC