Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
CELIA CONTINUES TO DECAY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHRINKING BAND OF
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF AN
0949 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND AN 0900 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 83 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT CONSIDERING THAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
CONSTRAINED AND THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KT WAS A FEW HOURS
EARLIER.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING CELIA TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS OR POSSIBLY LESS.  AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
COOL WATER AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. 
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY
PHILOSOPHY...AND MATCHES A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE
LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. CELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 3 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...THE REMNANT LOW IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AS THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 15.6N 121.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.1N 123.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.2N 125.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 16.2N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:29 UTC