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Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
BASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS OF T4.5/77 KT USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN. A 21/0007Z SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A NEARLY CLOSED
EYEWALL IN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVELS...AND AN INTERMITTENT
CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONINGS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. CELIA IS BEING STEERED IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION BY AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 96
HOURS...AFTER WHICH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW CELIA TO
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED DYNAMICAL MODELS...
EXCLUDING THE GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CIRRUS STREAMERS
FROM A LARGE DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED EAST OF CELIA
BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE HURRICANE OUTFLOW LAYER. AS A RESULT...
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE
HURRICANE SOON...POSSIBLY EVEN HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO RESUME.
THE WEAKENING TREND AT DAY 5 MAY BE PREMATURE IF CELIA DOES NOT
REACH COOLER WATER AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS
MARKEDLY HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 11.6N 100.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 11.5N 101.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 11.5N 103.1W    80 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 11.6N 104.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 12.6N 109.7W   105 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 15.5N 117.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:29 UTC