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Tropical Storm BLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
BLAS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
45 KT.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS.
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING...AND BEYOND THAT TIME IS NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 285/6. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP BLAS ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
TVCN CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 16.3N 108.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 109.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N 111.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 112.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 114.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:27 UTC