Tropical Storm TOMAS

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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THE
STORM WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
 
THE CONTINUED WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST LACK OF STRENGTHENING...OF
TOMAS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 12 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TOMAS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 5...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND.
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 13.5N  74.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  75.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.2N  76.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N  77.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.3N  76.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.1N  74.8W    85 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  72.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  70.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 
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